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房价和房地产再度成为这个周末最热的话题,在博鳌亚洲论坛上,官方、地产商、经济学家对房价各执一词,老百姓实在是不知道该听谁的,加上盛传的房地产特别消费税,的确吓到了老百姓、炒房人和地产股的持有者。
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[size=4][font=宋体]其实,每个人背后都有着自己的利益链条,潘石屹你就别理他了,自己是个地产商,天天喊着房价涨,其背后意图是路人皆知的,朝外[/font]SOHO[font=宋体]的烂摊子到现在还套着那么多业主,我看老潘应该先回去打理好这单子事情;龙永图也喊房价涨有点离谱,好歹也是官员出身,这会退到二线了就与新华社的观点对着干,的确不和谐,我大胆的预测后面会有主流媒体联合而集体封杀之;最值得注意的是建设部政策研究中心主任陈淮的发言,房奴和炒房者们该瞪起眼了,这个是今年最明确的信号。[/font]
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[size=4][font=宋体]陈准是这样说的:“[/font]我从来没有去研究房价走势,股评家、楼评家饭碗我们就不抢了。但是你刚才说收紧了二套房贷,这个说法不确切。我们在金融政策上,包括刚才大家提到的70%土地供应,还提到78家央企退出,这都不是新鲜政策,从有国资委那一天就明确规定非主业的央企一律退出房地产业。只是没有严格执行,从四年前土地政策就规定70%的土地用于建保障性住房,不是今年才给潘总规定的。你刚才说的二套房金融政策,是我们恢复到常态的金融政策而已,去年是保增长一个特殊情况下一个优惠政策。年轻女士天天逛商店,打折如果天天都打,那还叫折吗?一定有特殊的几天打,才叫打折。仅仅是恢复到常态。[font=宋体]至于你说物业税是抑制房价的,不知道谁给你讲的这个道理。物业税三个作用:第一,促进存量资源利用效率提高,不让房子闲置。第二,调整中央和地方财税关系。第三,贯彻社会公平,穷人和富人在占有资源上的不公平,通过税负关系加以调整。富人占优质资源也可以,多交税。[/font]唯独没有你说的那一条。短期内会不会对房价有影响呢?会的。你看到警察把他抓走了,其实你没事,但是你也害怕。会不会跟他没有关系呢?是不是有一天我们房地产不热了甚至下跌了,我们就把物业税取消呢?这是不可能的。市场经济下,有资产就要征税。做好准备吧。[font=times]”[/font]
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结合陈准的公开发言和近期我们搜集到的信息,对未来两年地产类重大政策推出的顺序,做出如下判断:
第一个推出的:非自住住房保有环节税;
第二个推出的:房地产特别消费税;
第三个推出的:物业税。
这三个税种哪个最可能直接抑制地产的投机?理性的分析,肯定物业税是最长久而深刻的,但眼前看,非自住住房保有环节税的出台,势必瞬间的将一些投机客置于死地,其威力不亚于资本市场的加息。
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[size=4]根据我们收到的邮件显示,目前《房地产税暂行条例》的研究以及相关修订工作,系由财政部税政司地方税处负责。其具体思路为,对个人拥有多套非自住房特别是高档大户型住房取消房产免征优惠,按适当税率征税。
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[font=宋体]最早颁布于1986年,目前各地方政府对此条例的执行方式,均是对城镇的经营性用房,如商业、厂房等征税,而对居民住宅的保有环节实施“免征优惠”,这也是目前城镇住宅保有环节无税负的制度原因所在。
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[font=宋体]那么,我们先明确两个问题:
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[size=4]非自住住房保有环节税交给谁?——地方政府。
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[size=4]非自住住房保有环节税能否顺利征收——可能很难。
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[size=4]究其原因,还是地方政府与中央政府的博弈,非自住住房保有环节税看起来对地方政府的短期财政压力有着巨大的缓解作用,但是非自住住房保有环节税的出台必将打击投机者,很多炒房人会卖出手中房产,造成市场中的抛盘增加,影响到地方房价和地产开工率,这对很多和地方政府绑在一起的开发商来说,将是致命的。利益驱动下,地方政府征收非自住住房保有环节税的动力可能不会很强,相反还是高价卖地来的实在。
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[size=4]谈到地方政府,我们就有必要说说房地产特别消费税了,我认为:房地产特别消费税征收的在非自住住房保有环节税推出以后迅速开始的可能性极大,而物业税三年之内无法征收。
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[size=4] 在分析这个问题之前,我们先来明确下面几个基本问题:
(1)房地产特别消费税是谁提出来的?
答:重庆市长黄奇帆,他在重庆市人大常委会上称,重庆已上报国务院申请施行“特别房产消费税”等抑制高房价思路。黄奇帆的做法有点类似于国资委要求非地产主业央企退出地产市场后,第一个表决心的是魏家福,这样的官员或者央企领导,都应该有良好的政治前途,起码有优秀的执行力与政治觉悟,比起唱反调的龙永图,黄奇帆做的太到位了。
(2)房地产特别消费税的税基是什么?
答:经地方政府或者评估的房屋总价作为税基。我们从接近财政部的人士了解到信息是,非自住、大户型的高档住房,比如单价超过800万元的或者280平米以上的二套房或者二套以上的房子,将会被课税。基本的思路是:在不开征新税种的情况下,达到对大户型、非自住高档住宅保有环节增加税负以控制楼市投资行为的目的。
(3)如果征收特别房产特别消费税,那么应该是从价征收还是从量征收?
答:从价征收。就我们推测,在开始的时候,特别房产消费税的征收可能是从价,这样很多三四线城市的豪宅因为单价低,并不能被覆盖,但随着特别房产消费税征收的深入,也将会有更详细的细则出台。
所以,老百姓没有必要担心,无论那个税种先出台,都是打击炒房者以及高档消费群体的,类似于奢侈品税的意思,对于抑制房价过快上涨,有着长期而深远的意义。但值得注意的,房产特别消费税不同于物业税,出台也没有那么恐怖,此前靠提高契税、营业税、个调税等交易环节的税负,很容易被卖方转嫁到买方头上,而且还抑制了房地产市场的“流动性”,而保有环节的税收对抑制投资投机性购房需求效果更好,老百姓应该拍手赞成。
文章转自:王亮博客
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