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踩踩 0作者:feimo701 发表日期:2011-08-15 复制链接 收藏
离房地产泡沫破灭只有一步之遥
——在清华大学资本战略研修班上的演讲
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应清华大学的邀请,我于[size=3]10月15日下午,在清华大学资本战略研修班上发表了我对宏观经济与房地产的发展,中国资本市场的发展理念及趋势的看法。现限于篇幅,只录取其中对房价泡沫的看法,刊于博客,敬请广大网友指正。
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这两天,不断出现一些经济方面的数据,让市场一惊一喜。前天,道琼斯指数在美国次贷危机以来首次重上万点,预示着美国实体经济的见底复苏,也预示着第二次金融海啸预言的破产。美国道琼斯指数从[size=3]14600点的高位,跌至今年3月2日的6740点,直到前天才重上万点,走出了一条惊心动魄的曲线。也同时可以看出,美国社会对刺激经济所作出的方向选择和努力。
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昨天中国发改委也公布了一个数据,那就是全国[size=3]70个大中城市房价同比上涨2.8%,环比上涨0.7%,连续7个月环比上涨。还有两个数据,一个是9月份新增贷款达到5167亿,比市场预期的3000多亿高出许多,还有一个是地方政府欠债突破5万亿。我们等下再来分析房价的数据,先看看后两个数据。后两个数据说明以投资拉动经济的失败,即使美国宣布退出经济刺激计划,中国也没有办法退出,原因有两个,一个是大量的钱投到铁公基上,减少贷款将导致大量的烂尾工程;二是中国房地产已经货币化,减少贷款将直接导致房价暴跌。
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二是地方政府的欠债。地方政府欠债突破[size=3]5万亿的数据,是发改委公布的,那就意味着仅仅只是公布了在基建投资上的欠债,在大兴土木大量兴建政府办公楼等楼堂馆所方面的欠债,不是地方政府的所有欠债,因为没有包括公费旅游吃喝接待方面的欠债。这笔欠债如果公布出来,同样是很惊人的。地方政府的欠债的解决有三个办法:一是对冲,就是用财政收入偿还,但是,根本不可能;二是投机,把部分资产打包上市,但是这样很多资产将会变着法子流进个人口袋,对偿还债务作用不大;三是营造一个庞氏骗局,最后由银行来冲销。
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这两个数据的公布给市场增加了一个预期,那就是尽管中国还没有到加税周期,但是,明年的税收将会大幅增加,这其中包括二手房交易税和物业税。不加税无法应付政府庞大的开支,向企业征税已经到了极致,因此,只有转向个人征税,而转向个人征税的的最大空间显然不是所得税,而是房地产的交易税和持有税,而持有税属于新开的税种,空间非常大,即使土地出让金大幅下滑,依靠物业税也足以维持正常增长。
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那么,现在问题来了。中国的房价泡沫已经巨大,基本上相当于1986年时期的日本,1996年时的香港。很多经济学家在研究房价泡沫的时候,产生一种臆想,那就是提出了许多如果,如果什么什么就会什么什么,如果日本政府当年不颁发《土地融资限令》,日本的房价就不会破灭;如果董建华不推出85万套廉租房的计划,香港房价泡沫就不会破灭。而历史是没有如果的。现在回过头来看,不管日本有没有《土地融资限令》,不管董建华会不会推出85万套廉租房计划,这两个地方的房价泡沫都会破灭。
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中国房价泡沫比当年的日本要严重得多。日本股市没有大跌前,日本房地产上市公司的市值只占股票总市值的[size=3]11%,而中国仅在A股上市的123家地产公司和近170家与地产相关联的上市公司的市值就占A股总市值的17%(包括中国建筑),如果加上在香港上市的中国内地的地产公司和在中国建筑网监会排队等候IPO的30家公司,那就是一个规模极为庞大的制造泡沫的机器。道理很简单,这些房地产上市公司本身都不持有物业,没有固定资产,连龙头老大万科的固定资产都只有市值的5%,一旦破产,这些房地产公司是什么都没有。
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不过说他们什么都没有也不一定正确,他们最大的资产就是泡沫资产——土地。而土地在中国正在变成一种可怕的金融工具,充当的只是金融衍生品的作用,而把土地作为公司资产上市也是近三年的事,这之前是严格禁止的。中央政府关于土地方面有很多诸如两年没有开发予以收回的禁令,很遗憾,没有得到很好的执行。从[size=3]2007年的情况来看,地王的结局都很悲惨,但是,2009年又重演这幕悲剧,而且更加疯狂,是为什么?就是为了圈钱。
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今年[size=3]6月,日本人看见中国的土地卖出了那么高的价格,也按捺不住冲动的喜悦。日本静冈县带来伊豆半岛一块150万平方米的土地,永久产权,随意规划,到上海来挂牌出卖,价格多少呢?说出来吓死人,每平方米78.88元,还不如中国一个四线城市的乡镇土地价格。众所周知,日本是一个国土面积很小的国家,那土地才是真正的稀缺,而价值呢?再说填海吧,成本每平方米也只需要600元至1000元,看看土地的真实价值,再来看看地王的价格,焉能不死?
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所以,中国房地产泡沫离破灭仅仅只有一步之遥。不管是加税,还是加息,或者是别的诸如《土地融资限令》之类的产业政策出台,都会刺破泡沫。比对中国宏观经济的艰难跋涉,比对中国城市居民收入的缓慢增长,再来比对房价的连续上涨和地王的不断出现,我们还有什么理由说,中国房价泡沫是钢铁做的?中国房价泡沫就不会破?拭目以待吧。现在购买住房,不仅无险可避,而且,面临资产大幅蒸发。
转自http://blog.qq.com/qzone/348973589/1255754053.htm
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